10 September 2009

Can UMNO defend Bagan Pinang?

Nature works mysteriously. We have been plagued by series of by-elections due to the demise of people’s representatives both from Federal and States Legislative Assemblies.

Within 18 months there have been 8 by-elections with BN scores on one seat in Batang Ai in Sarawak. Now appears the 9th.

UMNO and BN should give a big tribute and thank you to the postal votes which saved Bagan Pinang seat from falling to the opposition in the last General Elections (GE).

In the State Assembly, BN have only 21 seats while the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) has 15…the weakest BN government in Negeri Sembilan (NS) that history can reminisce.

This marginal government led by a weak Menteri Besar is the next potential tapau for the Pakatan Rakyat in the next GE…so said the general public opinion.

Now the question is who is going to be the BN candidate for this by-election? BN has now has to be deadly definite that the candidate must be the best among the good potentials.

It is not just to win but to gain bigger majority than Azman secured in the last GE. Winning by lesser margin is a definite approval of the public opinion that BN is meandering towards a disaster in the coming GE.


Teluk Kemang UMNO Division has unanimously decided to propose its own Division Chief, Tan Sri Isa Samad as the person to take on the mantle.

Isa was the former MB and a Cabinet Minister who unceremoniously resigned after the conviction of involving in money politics by the UMNO Disciplinary Committee but leaving behind him pools of experience in dealing with the opposition while he was in the government.

This by-election is going to be very attention-grabbing affair. It is a public familiarity that all the big political masters in the State are not united, be it the new or the veterans.

It would be just realistic if this by-election is just handled by folks of Teluk Kemang as active participation of leaders and members from other states may infest some unfavorable effects for a sure win.

UMNO in NS is at the weakest of all time because of Mohammad Hassan’s incapacity to bring the State UMNO integrated.

If UMNO is serious to improve the strength of UMNO NS the party should be taking the advantage of this by-election by taking Isa as the candidate who is fairly well accepted by the local voters.

Having Isa in the State Assembly again can help the State UMNO to count some hope for the party’s recuperation and repossession from the current serious fraction due to Mohammad’s malfunction as the State Party Chief.

For UMNO getting Isa to win the seat is of paramount importance as the weak Legislative Assembly can enhance the State Government by having Isa as a standby candidate for total reshuffle of the Government if Mohammad is still unable to get the Government out of the terrain.

Isa is impregnated with the experiences which UMNO badly needs if the party really wants to see its dominance in this State of Adat.

I admit that Isa was not spared from committing mistakes but that has been history as he is now a real full-grown leader who is able to consolidate the party which the current State leadership has miserably failed.

If Isa’s presence in the State Assembly becomes reality, the state UMNO has the chance to defend the State from falling prey of the opposition in the coming GE.

With the statements issued by majority of Division Chiefs clearly indicates the acceptance of Isa to play the patching role of the current adversities in NS UMNO.

As of now, stalwarts like Rais Yatim and Mohammad are not within the capacity to unite UMNO in the state.

Rais has himself being admonished by his own followers in Jelebu which is in a serious divide within the local leaders while Mohammad has too little a clue as how to manage human beings and politics in the State.

Mohammad has now lost total regards from the rakyat in the State and by having him to loiter around as the MB would eventually bring UMNO and BN to catastrophe.

Mohammad has been fond of developing lame ducks in UMNO Divisions in the State and for him to enjoy belittling them without exertion. He enjoys having yes men around him as that makes him feel powerful.

That is a crude attribute of a leader with serious inferiority complex which ultimately put the ruling Party to fall apart.

The Federal Leadership has to be honest and straight in making this decisive choice in Bagan Pinang. Let us take a consolation win this time around as we have been incessantly losing in all by-elections in the peninsular except for one in Batang Ai in Sarawak.

For whatever he is worth, Isa is still the best choice available for UMNO to defend Bagan Pinang seat in this important by-election.

I may be wrong in giving Isa the decisive points but taking any other person within the Teluk Kemang UMNO division is doing disservice to UMNO.

To Tan Sri Isa, I just wish him the very best of luck and if he wins he has heaps of tasks just in front of him for his careful and tactful read-through.

Believe me; he can sort out irritancies and encumbrances that UMNO is facing in NS at this instant.


Thanks………………………………………………Aspan Alias

5 comments:

Thinking Outloud said...

You said:

Mohammad has too little a clue as how to manage human beings and politics in the State.

He and Khalid Ibrahimn shows how shallow minded our business people actually.

Don't we realised that in any discussion with any of those business-minded, they like to emphaisis they way think by the phrase "The bottom line."

Thats where business and corporate thinking people are ... at the bottom.

They can't think and appreciate beyond the normal and limited variables they are used to. These two examples shows they do not appreciate the common people.

Now I understand why traditional Confucian Chinese society give the lowest respect for traders.

Yet this country tend to give corporate personalities too much respect. Is it out of inferiority complex or envy or just plain dumb?

Don't they realised these korparat are swindlers and thiefs!

Anonymous said...

Aspan,
How much did Isa pay you to write this story?

Anonymous said...

Mat Hasan org kampung den. Kito tahu dio tu berjuang untuk kelargo dio ajo.

Aspan Alias said...

Dear Anonymous 11th september 21:02,

Don't equate me with you who always need to be paid to say anything.

Can you identify yourself as I may consider paying you a bit.

Alias Mohd Yusof said...

DENGAN hampir 40% pengundi di Bagan Pinang adalah terdiri dari bukan Melayu, adalah amat sukar untuk PAS menang dalam PRK Bagan Pinang nanti.

Bertambah sukar lagi kerana di sana terdapat 4600 pengundi pos yang kebiasaannya trend undi pos akan berpihak kepada UMNO. Sudah tentu majoriti pengundi pos ini adalah juga orang Melayu. Oleh itu berapa peratus sajalah lagi orang Melayu yang tinggal yang akan mengundi PAS setelah ditolak pengundi pos ini.

Oleh itu di Bagan Pinang, PAS sangat bergantung kuat kepada undi dari orang bukan Melayu bagi memenangkan calon mereka.

Di PRK Manek Urai terdapat lebih 95% pengundi Melayu Islam, namun PAS masih terkial-kial untuk menang, apatah lagi kalau di Bagan Pinang ini yang jumlah orang bukan Melayu hampir 40% dari bilangan pengundi.

Nampaknya UMNO berada dalam keadaan yang begitu selesa sekali, UMNO tak perlu berhempas pulas untuk menang di Bagan Pinang.

UMNO tak perlu belanja besar untuk mengadakan projek ‘mee segera’ di Bagan Pinang. Apa yang perlu UMNO lakukan hanyalah cukup dengan menggunakan media perdana sebaik mungkin untuk menjauhkan orang bukan Melayu dari PAS.

Melalui media perdana UMNO akan mengambil peluang untuk melakukan perang saraf dengan menggambarkan PAS sebuah parti politik Islam yang ekstrim. Hukum Hudud dan Negara Islam ala PAS sudah tentu akan dimainkan semula oleh UMNO menjelang pilihanraya ini.

Kalau kita menggunakan strategi yang bijak, adalah tidak sesuai untuk pihak PR menurunkan calon PAS bagi mewakili mereka dalam PRK di Bagan Pinang ini. Calon yang mungkin lebih sesuai ialah dari parti PKR.

Parti PKR adalah parti yang sederhana yang boleh diterima oleh orang bukan Melayu dengan baik berbanding parti PAS. Peluang untuk PR menang di Bagan Pinang lebih cerah jika membenarkan calon dari parti PKR bagi mewakili PR bertanding di situ.

Tetapi apalah yang PR boleh buat, sudah tentu parti komponen dalam PR tidak mahu menyinggung perasaan parti PAS untuk mengusulkan cadangan ini.

Tentulah parti PKR tidak berasa selesa dan tidak manis kalau mereka meminta kepada PAS supaya calon PR yang bertanding di Bagan Pinang untuk kali ini diberikan kepada parti PKR. Semuanya ini terpulang kepada budibicara parti PAS sendiri.

Parti PAS tidak harus melihat kepada keuntungan jangka pendek sahaja dengan terus berkeras untuk mengekalkan calon mereka bertanding di Bagan Pinang. PAS patut melihat kepada keuntungan jangka panjang, keuntungan kepada PR secara keseluruhannya.

Bagi PAS kemenangan mungkin tidak begitu penting, bagi mereka perjuangan itulah yang lebih penting. Tetapi kita kena ingat juga, kalau kita hendak berjuang, strategi pun mesti ada juga.
Kalau PAS betul-betul hendak melihat PR menang dalam PRK Bagan Pinang ini, tentulah parti PAS tidak menolak untuk memberi peluang kepada parti yang lain dalam PR untuk mewakili kawasan itu.

Semasa berlaku tsunami politik pada pilihanraya 2008, PAS tidak dapat memenangi kawasan Bagan Pinang, apa lagilah bila keadaan gelombang tsunami politik yang semakin reda sekarang ini. Parti PAS kenalah mengambil kira perkara ini, ia boleh dijadikan alasan kuat kenapa PAS harus memberi peluang kepada parti komponen yang lain dalam PR untuk bertanding di PRK Bagan Pinang pada 11 Oktober ini.

Kita begitu yakin, PAS sukar untuk memenangi PRK Bagan Pinang ini. Kekalahan PAS di Bagan Pinang bukan sahaja akan melemahkan moral parti PAS tetapi juga ia turut memberi kesan yang negatif kepada persepsi orang ramai kepada PR itu sendiri.

PRK Bagan Pinang adalah pilihanraya sangat penting bagi menentukan nasib masa depan BN dan PR, sehingga kepentingan parti bukanlah lagi menjadi suatu keutamaan dalam PRK Bagan Pinang ini.