Let me predict that BN will retain Kerdau and Merlimau state seats without much exertion. This twin by elections is hoped to be the last of the unprecedented series of by elections both in Parliamentary and State constituencies since the 2008 General Election (GE). It has been terribly tiring for past 3 years with by election came one by one unendingly.
With BN victory in Kerdau and Melimau State constituencies it squares the score between BN and Pakatan. Out of the 16 by elections Pakatan managed to win over the BN incumbent constituencies in 2 Parliamentary seats ie in Kuala Trengganu and Sibu while BN won over the PR incumbent in Hulu Selangor and state constituency of Galas. The rest of the 12 by elections went to the incumbents from both coalitions.
The play off will be the Lenggeng by election if there is any. But if the convicted BN State Assemblyman wins his appeal against his conviction then the real play off will be the forth coming GE. Hence both sides of the divide at this moment should not be claiming and crying for victory as everything is square and does not change numbers for both sides of the contesting divide.
In the final analysis BN has failed to add to their numbers despite of tens of billion of project pledges add up together in all the by elections. So far BN is just in its normal defensive position. On the other hand PR managed sustainable performance by maintaining the numbers despite of strong pressure from the ruling coalition. Thus the claim by BN that there is strong indication that the voting public is back to BN fold is quite baseless and unfounded.
In the peninsula there may be some seats currently held by PR will loose to BN but there also some others that are currently held by BN will unquestionably change hands to PR especially the seats currently held by the 15 MCA MPs. Most of those seats are going to be taken over by DAP. I believe that the trend and pattern of voting in the peninsula remains very liquid. The votes can go either way and it is going to remain that way until the GE.
Now what is the closest indication as to whether BN will be able to retain the current number of seats after coming GE? It is Sarawak State election that is going to tell all. Currently the opposition holds 8 seats in the State Assembly out of 71, which is fractionally over 10 percent of the total. Many political observers from both local and international say that it is impossible for the current administration to maintain the figures even if the one of the richest leaders of the world, Taib spends all what he has frivolously snatched from the people in vote shopping in the election.
DAP is reassuringly going to win in almost all the urban and sub-urban seats while the other 30 seats with Dayak and Iban dominated constituencies are for grabs. If the opposing parties manage to find reconciliatory solution to face BN one to one, the situation is going to be more unpleasant for Taib Mahmud and he is going to go through new political experience.
The inability of BN leadership in Kuala Lumpur to advise Taib to go for retirement is a real political flop for the forty-year old coalition. There is no reason what so ever for Najib to retain Taib as the chief of BN as this man is nothing more than just a pest to the coalition and that is going to affect BN unenthusiastically nation wide. The heavy losses in this state will obviously affect BN’s performances at the national scale especially in the peninsula.
I am told that DAP is set to secure at least 9 parliamentary seats in the GE while other opposition candidates are going to take away another 4 from BN, and the issue is just floating and hanging around Taib’s corruptible and vacillating issues.
Taib is not just affecting his party but he is going to have an effect on the coalition partners, SUPP, SPDP and PRS as well. Some say that Taib should not be loitering around anywhere in the leadership lineup of BN in the state to any further extent. His time is over.
If Taib is not anywhere in the state BN lineup the chances of maintaining the good number of parliamentary seats is manageable and that can up to the already unsecured numbers in the peninsula. Losing just few seats to the opposition in Sarawak simply means that the Federal Legislative is certain to be in the hands of the PR. That’s it.